The Mother of All Commodities
New York Times writer Christopher Furlong hits the nail on the head in describing the close nexus between economics and politics when it comes to oil and its role in the health and security of the world economy: “In 2011, events unfolding in the Arab world, the epicenter of global oil production, have been a sobering reminder that trading in oil, the mother of all commodities, is at heart a political game.”
Middle East Tumult Continues
And as Furlong points out, with financial analysts projecting that prices for two important oil benchmarks will average from $100 a barrel to $120 a barrel in 2012, “There is little room for more disruption in supplies.” Iranian threats last month to block the Straight of Hormuz could significantly influence 2012 oil prices, just as the unrest in Libya did in 2011, according to Furlong. We all know that the tumultuous events of theMiddle Eastin the last year are not going to settle into long-term stability anytime soon. Given that fact, we can rationally expect a continuing volatility with its attendant inflationary impact on global oil prices.
Management by Forethought or Crisis?
With that scene clearly on the horizon, the pressing question becomes, “Do we manage now by thoughtful foresight and planning, including a strong move toward more renewable energies such as Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)…or do we wait for the inevitable and predictable, in which case we will manage by crisis?” Short-termism can be deadly. Every responsible citizen lives by the sound principle that some measure of advanced long-term planning is wise in their financial and personal affairs. Surely, we should expect no less of our business and political leaders.
WATER WARS
An Unpleasant Fact
Some facts we all would rather not think about. One of those unpleasant truths is that there are places in the world where the need for people to share limited fresh water supplies poses a real threat of conflict. The south Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are two of those places. As described by T.P. Sreenivasan of The New York Times, “ If Kerala and Tamil Nadu were independent countries with their own armies, they might have been at war by now over the water held behind a dam in Kerala that supplies Tamil Nadu.” According to Sreenivasan, “Protests and demonstrations have lasted for more than five years and tensions have been so elevated recently that some citizens have resorted to violence as India’s federal government, for the most part, has watched helplessly.”
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As reported November 16, 2012 in The Energy Collective article U.S. Military Invests In Sustainability, “Most senior ranking military officials acknowledge the need to address the risks posed by climate change. Even military men that were around long before the Obama administration believe that it is urgent that we address climate change.” The On Project’s previous blog of March 14, 2012 noted that one of those top military officials is Rear Admiral David W. Titley, who in 2009 was appointed as Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy, as well as Director of the Task Force Climate Change.
